Fundstrat Global Advisors analyst Thomas Lee admitted his mistake about the forecast of the likely increase in the price of bitcoin during this week’s conference Consensus 2018, calling the reasons for which it did not happen.
Earlier in May, the analyst suggested that holding the conference Consensus 2018 would have a positive effect on the dynamics of the cryptocurrency market. He argued his conclusion that in previous years, the crypto-currencies showed an increase in the range between 10% and 70% after the Consensus, and the scale of the new conference can cause a rapid rally of bitcoin to mark $15,000.
This year, the Consensus 2018 conference attracted about 9,000 visitors and a large number of speakers and experts, beating their previous attendance records.
Bitcoin really went up on Monday, May 14th, the day the conference began, rising close to $8,900. To consolidate at this level the first cryptocurrency, however, could not: the next day the rate again rushed down, falling at a certain moment even below $8,000. The last few days bitcoin is trading in the range between $8,200 and $8,300.
CRYPTO: #Consensus2018 rally did not happen, very disappointing. What we needed was a trifecta of progress: (i) institutional custody/tools; (ii) buy-in by banks/investment managers; (iii) regulatory clarity (3 of 3 needed), but we got progress on (i) and (ii). Full text below pic.twitter.com/XcqNhgYgK7
— Thomas Lee (@fundstrat) May 18, 2018
“The rally during the Consensus 2018 did not happen, and it’s very disappointing. Three conditions were necessary for this: 1) institutional depositories/instruments, 2) banks/investment managers, 3) regulatory certainty, ” wrote Thomas Lee, adding that progress was made only on the first two points.
He also offered a more detailed analysis of the market conditions, noting that despite the fact that several important statements were made at the conference (the most important of them was the news that the Japanese bank Nomura with the participation of Global Advisor Holdings and the manufacturer of hardware wallets Ledger creates a company that will specialize in the safe storage of digital assets), it is the continuing lack of regulatory clarity that creates obstacles for large investors to enter the market from institutional investors.
The only major cryptocurrency, which showed growth this week, was Zcash, but, as Thomas Lee noted, it happened solely due to its addition to the Gemini exchange.
He also says that while a number of investment funds consider bitcoin to be “boring” and that other protocols are “better or faster”, along with Ethereum will continue to be one of the two key crypto-loans for investors, and that the volume of payments using bitcoin continues to grow.
Based on the above, Thomas Lee concludes that, despite the fact that the rally did not happen, during the Consensus 2018, the crypto-currencies as a whole “became stronger”.
Earlier this week, the CEO of BitMEX, Arthur Hayes, said that at the present time, due to the weak involvement of institutional investors, the crypto-currency industry is more a “retail phenomenon”. Nevertheless, he does not rule out that by the end of 2018 the price of bitcoin could reach $50,000.